If so, you may want to give some sober thought to article below. If we become a natural gas importer in twenty years, you will need to keep in mind who we will be getting that gas from - Russia. Now consider they they, the Russians, get to set the price and that they, the Russians, have a habit of shutting off the flow of gas when they need to strongarm a country to seeing their way (just ask the Ukrainians). Now, how old will you be in twenty years? I don't know about you guys, but I'll be 65, and likely retired. Maybe this is a good time to consider what your income might be like then. Will you be able to afford those higher prices, just for the luxury of heating your home ?
CANADAS NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION IS ENTERING SERIOUS DECLINE, BUT MOST CANADIANS REMAIN UNAWARE
---------------------In October 2007 the National Energy Board quietly issued a report entitled “Short-term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability.” Its contents are shocking, yet there has been no public response. The first step in our natural gas supply is finding it. On p. 8, the report states, “there is a well-established trend of decreasing finding rate year on year.”
Second, the wells don’t last: “over the first year and a half of production, the annual decline rate of the average well is 55%” (p. vii).
Third, western conventional gas production is plummeting: the NEB chart on p. 16 shows that total WCSB conventional gas is projected to decline 16% from 2006-2009. One month later, the NEB issued its “Canada’s Energy Future to 2030.” This report states that “increasing demand and gradually declining production reduces the net exports to zero by 2028 [after which] Canada becomes a net gas importer, reliant on LNG [liquified natural gas] imports” (p.xx).
As if losing 16% of our western production in just three years were not bad enough, the November report goes on to predict that “Canadian natural gas production is expected to decline by almost 40% by the end of 2030” (p.48).
Keep in mind that the US takes over half of Canadian NG production and the planned tar sands expansion (also geared to serve the US market) will increase NG demand considerably. What does the NEB say about this impending supply crunch? It states that by 2030 Canada will need to import about three billion cubic ft per day of liquid natural gas (LNG) via five import terminals (p.46).
Bottom line: our natural gas, which could and should have kept Canadians warm for centuries, is rapidly disappearing. Beginning in St. John and Kitimat, Canadians will gradually see our NG pipelines reversed and our formerly secure supply of domestic gas replaced by overseas LNG. Relying on a volatile global LNG market to warm our homes in February is hardly prudent, but there is no public awareness, no media interest and no political discussion.
So Canadians will have no choice.
------------------------------------------end of article
Maybe this is a good time, as a citizen in a participatory democracy (and with no doubt some self interest in keeping warm during the winter), to get involved and ask the media and our elected officials to begin talking about the time when Canadians will need to rely on our good friends (the Russians) for home heating!
Or, folks could just carry on as sheeple and let whatever happen, happen. Personally, I choose the former.
No comments:
Post a Comment