Our Pompeii?

The morning of August 24, 79AD was undoubtedly not unlike many others in Pompeii, a town located near the Coast of Naples, in ancient Italy. It’s otherwise vibrant economy was finally starting to boom again after a major earthquake several years earlier. Bakers baked, blacksmiths forged, teachers taught and people otherwise went about their business, sure and confident of their place within the mighty Roman Empire. Surely, life was good.

However, the unthinkable happened, and peoples lives, where just moments earlier, all was well, were swept away by the destruction wrought by an erupting Mt. Vesuvius. Sadly, in the weeks and months prior to that historic volcanic eruption, the warning signs were there – tremors, minor quakes, and ominous plumes of smoke wafting from the caldera. Unfortunately, there were no geologists or volcanologists around back then to heed these signs and alert the people, and so the bakers still baked, the blacksmiths forged, the teachers taught and folks ignored the rumblings under the volcano, going about their busy lives as if tomorrow was a given.

It’s hard to imagine, really – a normal day one moment, and catastrophe the next. But…the signs were there, and the events of that day are now etched in history.

Fast-forward to the modern, high-tech world of today. We in the west enjoy an amazing standard of living that would have been nothing short of magic in the eyes of the early Romans. It’s amazing how we can feed and entertain ourselves, travel the globe, and manufacture the myriads of things for our consumer culture. The world is a manufacturing juggernaut, even in this depressed economy, and this is only possible because of the cheap, available energy available to do so. In fact, we’ve become extremely good at using fuels, mainly fossil fuel, to make our world go. Why wouldn’t we? Fossil fuels, namely oil, are still plentiful and relatively cheap, and deliver a powerful energy kick. We’ve used oil to industrialize agriculture, manufacture the specialty chemicals and plastics we all use on a daily basis, and make the transportation of people and things a perceived divine right . Surely, life is good.

However, like those Pompeian’s of so long ago, most people in today’s world are unaware of our own rumbling Vesuvius. But this time it’s not a volcano we need to worry about. The threat we need to wake up to and boldly tackle is less local, and more global, and it’s name is Peak Oil. This isn’t the name of a mountain in Saudi Arabia, rather it’s a term to describe the point in time where global oil production hits a maximum, and thereafter declines as the wells deplete and what oil is left is of poorer quality and harder to get. In a world so dangerously dependant on oil, this represents a greater threat to civilization than terrorism, H1N1, or this most recent global economic downturn. Most experts in the oil industry acknowledge peak oil production to occur some time in the next five to ten years. Every year past the peak would see oil prices skyrocket, permanently tanking the economy in the process.

You’d be right to step back at this moment and say all this sounded a little dramatic. And you’d be right – it does sound dramatic, but only because the problem itself is so. We depend on oil for just about everything and there is no substitute available or on the horizon to replace the expected shortfall between supply and demand, despite talk of a hydrogen economy or fleets of electric cars. Other sectors we take for granted would also be affected by soaring oil prices – food and home heating to name a few. Consider that for every calorie we get from our feed, eight calories of soon-to-be very expensive fossil fuel inputs were used to grow that food and get it to the store for you to purchase. Filling your grocery cart should not need a small loan.

While this sounds like a new problem, it really isn’t. In 1956, Shell geologist M. King Hubbert accurately predicted US oil production would peak in 1971. While many scoffed at him, he was right, and he went on to predict global oil production would peak around the year 2000. While certainly off, his prediction didn’t miss by much, as most petro geologists predict an oil Peak before 2020..

Credible, third party sources will verify that this threat is just around the corner and that inaction at government, business and personal levels would be disastrous. In 2005, senior energy advisor Robert L. Hirsch testified to Congress, “As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.”

The L.B. Magoon report for the US Geological Survey notes, “In the last five years, we’ve consumed 27 billion barrels of oil a year, but the oil industry has only discovered three billion barrels a year. So, only one barrel was replaced for every nine barrels we used.”

James Schlesinger (R), Energy Secretary under President Jimmy Carter, also recently warned, "We are not good at recognizing distant threats even if their probability is 100%. Society ignoring [peak oil] is like the people of Pompeii ignoring the rumblings below Vesuvius."

The words of alarm from the experts in the field are our warning signs that awareness and action are urgently needed. While the residents of Pompeii had no warning, we certainly do, and the consequences of inaction are certainly ours to avoid. We are no more immune from disaster than those unfortunate Roman citizens two thousand years ago. It’s arrogant to think otherwise.

To learn more, please search for ‘peak oil’ online. You will be awarded with an impressive amount of information. Alternatively, you can email phcri08@gmail.com for more information. Let us together begin to prepare for one of the defining moments of this young century, and avoid our own Pompeii.

Ah yes, it seems many days have passed since the last entry - my bad completely. It's not that I've lost interest - quite the contrary. But, between work and other "stuff" I had, I just needed to ease off on something, that ended up being the blog.

Anyways, with that hopefully face-saving little bit out of the way, it's probably a good idea to do a little update on the state of PCHRI. I guess the first would be to comment on the membership, which has grown to a dozen. I have to say that I'm a little surprised, given the size of the community. I guess the only disappointment I have with this is that all of the members were already of the "green" sort or Peak Oil aware. Not to take away from the excellent group of people we have, but it will be great when the day comes when were up a dozen more, they being "the awakened". I still hold on to the hope that the folks in Poplar Hill/Coldstream will rise to the challenge before the challenge rises to them first.

Anyways, this summer has seen PHCRI voice it's support for Valleyview School, which is caught up in an ARC through the school board. What this boils down to is that, due to declining enrollment, they may close our local school and bus the kids elsewhere. This, I find, objectionable from the point of view of not only a tax-paying a community member, but as someone who sees the school as a vital anchor both now and in a low energy world. Valleyview has boasted great scores in Grade 3 and Grade 6 annual testing, and is staffed with an amazing bunch of educators. This will be a fight PHCRI will be engaged in.

This summer has also seen us join with the Envirofriends of Coldstream, in getting a farmers market up and running. The Envirofriends deserve a very big tip of the hat for all the leg work they've done in setting up and promoting this initiative, and contacting PHCRI to work collaboratively in running it through he summer. Speaking of running it, the market is open every Saturday, from 9-12, and is seeing a core group of vendors settle in. There's also the expectation that when folks start seeing their vegetable gardens bear fruit (pardon the pun), that we'll see some of that produce show up there. We've already seen baby tomato plants, rhubarb, lettuce and arugula. There's also a local bakery and two vendors selling home made crafts. This is a wonderful initiative, one we hope to see grow in the years to come.

The next item we will be digging into is a skills inventory. In brief, it's a survey of our community to see what residents have what skills. In a resilient Poplar Hill/Coldstream, we'll need to know who to call if we need an electrician, or plumber, or doctor for that matter. I'll save the details for a separate blog, but for now I'll just say that it will be a great way to get our name out there, meet people, and get a feel for some of the people-strengths of our community.

Until next time. (and it won't be another three and a half months...)

A quick thought on recycling

Paradoxically, recycling seems to be both a responsible practice from and an unfortunate by product of, our consumer-driven society. In truth, the recycling industry we have now is predicated on all of us living as unsustainable as we do, generating ridiculous amounts of waste metal, plastic and paper. (As a side note, it bothers me to no end that the success of our economy actually depends on me, and millions like me, being a 'good consumer', and doing nothing but 'buy, buy, buy'. Talk about offensive.)

Think about it. Would the recycling industry even exist in its present form if, instead of an economy based on unrestrained growth and consumption, it was based on sustainable lifestyles and practices? I doubt it. It almost seems to be nothing more than a cheap salve to soothe our collective guilt that so much is being otherwise thrown away. Look at how green I am - I recycled the cardboard box for the third TV we just bought. Oh, I do my part for the environment, I recycle all those water bottles I carry with me wherever I go.

Don't get me wrong - I'm all for recycling. I just don't like the real driving force behind the concept. I mean, just look at the the "Three R's" - Reduce, Reuse, Recycle. Great words, but how many people do you really know that practice the first two? If you're like me, too few.

As we enter the age of energy depletion, I believe sheer necessity will shift the emphasis away from the last of the three R's, Recycle to the second, Reuse. Recycling can be very energy-intense, especially for metals and plastics, so much of that last 'R' will drop off. Reduction will simply be a consequence of the drastic drop in consumer spending. I'm not going to be buying junk I don't need when I have to spend more of my money on food, heating, electricity and transportation, all of which will see huge increases in price as the oil supply chokes off.

So, that leaves Reuse. Looking back to the turn of the last century (or even before WW2 for that matter), things weren't so casually tossed like they are today. Have a broken toaster? Send it to the small appliance repair man so you can get it repaired. Now? Just chuck it and buy another one at WalMart. Those days are numbered.

It's just a shame that it will be something like Peak Oil forcing the change to Reduce, rather than a genuine collective spirit to do so. I can't help but wonder how many people will reflect back on this time of waste, with anger and resentment to those generations who knew better, yet did not care and did nothing. I fear that will be a common refrain.

I can see business opportunity for individuals and communities that have the plans and skills to reuse the existing tools and 'things' we now have, and so casually throw out and replace when funtionality no longer exists due to breakage or style.

Now, more than ever, is the time to shine a light into the past to see how we did things that got old, required fixing, or that we no longer needed.

Talking To Youth

I have to say that after more than half a year of talking formally and informally to people about Peak Oil, climate change, and how their lives may be changed, I still struggle deeply with how to really discuss this with youth, my own included.

Most adults have a hard enough time coming to terms with the implications of PO, and how it will affect them. With every small “victory”, where I see that someone is beginning to comprehend what this is all about, it is tempered with the reality that I have brought the pain of bad news into their life, like a doctor telling a patient they have a terminal disease. The audience thus far has been a more mature lot – co-workers, and the like, most of which have the emotional intelligence to deal with this (and that is an article all in itself).

But the challenge remains – how do you talk to kids about this, especially those who are in high school – those who are more aware of the world around them and who have been conditioned by the system, their families and the media as to what their adult lives and expectations should be? How do you tell a kid that their standard of living is going to be much less than what our generation has enjoyed? How do you get the point across that they and their peers will have to adjust to what may be the largest socio-economic upheaval in modern history, and on a global scale? Worse, how do you get across to them that they are in this mess because of the selfish, shortsightedness of their parents and grandparents generations? I mean face it – this is scary stuff!

At the same time, we do them a huge disservice by avoiding the issue with them. We owe it to them to give them the heads up that change is coming, and that it will be hard, but that they will face it with the love and support of their family and community. I would love to be able to link up with a PO-aware child psychologist, and then get the fruits of that dialogue out to the PO community and the community in general (so doctor, if you’re reading this, talk to me!).

I believe that children are actually a pretty resilient lot and that if the information is fed to them over time and in a careful, sensitive manner, that we’ll have a generation of youth more mentally prepared to deal with the coming changes than many of us were. In fact, to see a great example of how one group has spoken to youth, please see the video, linked below, for a group in Ireland, called FADA (the video is broken into three parts). The speaker, Brian Kaller, has done a wonderful job outlining the problem and presenting a vision of a more resilient, sustainable future that may be within our grasp if we all work together at making it happen.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8pPh1-KO_Q

A strong and resilent community, one which is aware of the reasons why we are in the mess we're in, must have its young people mentally, physically and emotionally prepared. They have every right to be angry and resentful at the individual and collective people and systems that led our society into this wasteland of blind and selfish consumption and greed, and a future that they did not ask for or deserve.

We owe it to them to change what we can, and to help them clean up the mess that we made.

PHCRI March 09 Newsletter

Newsletter #2 – March 2009


Is your family prepared for Peak Oil, and the dramatic impact it will have on the way we live?


Are you ready to reconnect to your community as we cross the threshold into a lower energy future?

We know how dramatic this sounds, and wouldn’t blame you if you thought it sounded a little far-fetched (especially with the low oil and gas prices we are currently seeing).

But here’s the thing – global oil depletion is already being talked about in the halls of government and in oil industry boardrooms. The concept of oil depletion is called Peak Oil.

Peak Oil is the historical point at which the annual volume of oil production is the highest it has ever been or ever will be again. Once we pass the peak, global oil production will begin to decline, following a downward trend until finally, decades later, the oil that remains in the ground is unrecoverable at any price because it takes more energy to extract the oil than one gets from using it.

The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economy running. This will – not may, but will – affect just about everyone globally, as food production, transportation, heating and manufacturing all are dangerously dependent on cheap and available oil.

Within a decade (plus or minus a few years) we’ll hit the point of Peak Oil, the consequence of which will be an unremitting contraction of economies, leading to a lower standard of living for people, families and communities, and lost revenues for business and government.

If you’ve read this far, you might be thinking that this is either a serious problem that hasn’t been given the attention it deserves, or that this flyer is filled with improbable, alarmist hype that couldn’t possibly come to pass. After all “they” wouldn’t let something like that ever happen. If the latter, please consider the following comments on Peak Oil from industry insiders and government officials, otherwise known as “they”;

“Over the next few decades, our reserves of oil will start to run out and it is imperative that governments in both producing and consuming nations prepare now for that time.”
Fatih Birol – International Energy Agency (March, 2008)

“We’ve embarked on the beginning of the last days of the age of oil.”
Mike Bolwin, Chairman of BP subsidiary ARCO

“Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.”
Jeroem van de Veer – CEO, Royal Dutch Shell (Jan., 2008)

"It's obviously unsustainable and the world is increasingly drawing on the bigger, older fields. You couple that notion with the irreversibility of decline and you've got a very alarming picture."
James W. Buckee, retired President and CEO of Talisman Energy (January 2008)

“The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.”
Robert L. Hirsch - Energy Advisor, in testimony to Congress (2005)

“Fuel is our economic lifeblood. The price of oil can be the difference between recession and recovery. The western world is import dependent.”
Tony Blair, former British Prime Minister (April 2002)

"It's not about believing. It's about facts."
Gord Miller, Ontario’s Environment Commissioner (2007)

“We are not good at recognizing distant threats, even if their probability is 100%. Society ignoring Peak Oil is like the people of Pompeii ignoring the rumblings under Mt. Vesuvius.”

James Schlesinger, former US Energy Secretary (Sep., 2007

Poplar Hill/Coldstream Resilience Initiative (PHCRI) is a group of area citizens with a plan and a mission. Around the world, a growing number of communities, both large and small, have been embarking on responses to this looming crisis. PHCRI is an organization encompassing the power of community in Poplar Hill/Coldstream, dedicated to an awareness of Peak Oil, and the promotion of a back to basics approach to bring resilience to the community through innovation and imagination.

Resilience: (noun) an ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change; the ability to absorb shocks

The paths to building resilience are many, and have several personal, community, business and government approaches. All are important, but the heart and soul of the process is the power of community.

We urge you to learn more about Peak Oil and how it will affect you, specifically your job, your family, and our community. If you are interested in helping to prepare for the changes ahead, or if you are looking for more information, email us at phcri08@gmail.com.

In the meantime, please type ‘peak oil’ into the search engine of your choice, and begin reading. Alternatively, please check out the web sites provided below.

Credible online resources include;

ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas) http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/peak-oil/

ODAC (Oil Depletion Analysis Centre) http://www.odac-info.org/peak-oil-primer

Peak Oil article in Toronto Star http://www.thestar.com/article/587901

Other Peak Oil news http://www.energybulletin.net/

Heat Your Home With Natural Gas?

If so, you may want to give some sober thought to article below. If we become a natural gas importer in twenty years, you will need to keep in mind who we will be getting that gas from - Russia. Now consider they they, the Russians, get to set the price and that they, the Russians, have a habit of shutting off the flow of gas when they need to strongarm a country to seeing their way (just ask the Ukrainians). Now, how old will you be in twenty years? I don't know about you guys, but I'll be 65, and likely retired. Maybe this is a good time to consider what your income might be like then. Will you be able to afford those higher prices, just for the luxury of heating your home ?

Rick Munroe, Ottawa Citizen

CANADAS NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION IS ENTERING SERIOUS DECLINE, BUT MOST CANADIANS REMAIN UNAWARE

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In October 2007 the National Energy Board quietly issued a report entitled “Short-term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability.” Its contents are shocking, yet there has been no public response. The first step in our natural gas supply is finding it. On p. 8, the report states, “there is a well-established trend of decreasing finding rate year on year.”

Second, the wells don’t last: “over the first year and a half of production, the annual decline rate of the average well is 55%” (p. vii).

Third, western conventional gas production is plummeting: the NEB chart on p. 16 shows that total WCSB conventional gas is projected to decline 16% from 2006-2009. One month later, the NEB issued its “Canada’s Energy Future to 2030.” This report states that “increasing demand and gradually declining production reduces the net exports to zero by 2028 [after which] Canada becomes a net gas importer, reliant on LNG [liquified natural gas] imports” (p.xx).

As if losing 16% of our western production in just three years were not bad enough, the November report goes on to predict that “Canadian natural gas production is expected to decline by almost 40% by the end of 2030” (p.48).

Keep in mind that the US takes over half of Canadian NG production and the planned tar sands expansion (also geared to serve the US market) will increase NG demand considerably. What does the NEB say about this impending supply crunch? It states that by 2030 Canada will need to import about three billion cubic ft per day of liquid natural gas (LNG) via five import terminals (p.46).

Bottom line: our natural gas, which could and should have kept Canadians warm for centuries, is rapidly disappearing. Beginning in St. John and Kitimat, Canadians will gradually see our NG pipelines reversed and our formerly secure supply of domestic gas replaced by overseas LNG. Relying on a volatile global LNG market to warm our homes in February is hardly prudent, but there is no public awareness, no media interest and no political discussion.

So Canadians will have no choice.

------------------------------------------end of article

Maybe this is a good time, as a citizen in a participatory democracy (and with no doubt some self interest in keeping warm during the winter), to get involved and ask the media and our elected officials to begin talking about the time when Canadians will need to rely on our good friends (the Russians) for home heating!

Or, folks could just carry on as sheeple and let whatever happen, happen. Personally, I choose the former.

Awakening

One morning, early last summer, I was eating breakfast and getting my daily news-fix on the internet. I was reading an article on global warming and saw a reference to something called Peak Oil. I didn't really know anything about it, but my interest was piqued (pardon the pun), as it was mentioned as something that was related to the global warming problem. As I followed the link and began reading what Peak Oil was all about (and what it meant to me and my family), I felt the blood drain from my face. I was mortified. Ever have one of those "Holy shit, this can't be real" moments? Well, I had one of those right then and there. I can't really describe the funk I was in after reading that stuff. I was deperate to find a valid scientific or technical response from someone - anyone - that said "No, Peak Oil is just a theory, and we'll all be fine." Sadly, none was forthcoming. This was an unpleasant way to be starting my weekend.

Over the next month, as I learned more about Peak Oil, and was able to both emotionally and rationally digest what I was learning, I went through two distict phases; denial and anger. I understand now that these are actually two of the phases in the grieving process, though I didn't actually see it that way at the time (more about that another time). Shortly thereafter, I found myself at a web page for an oranization based in the UK called Transition Towns. These guys had been working a response to Peak Oil for a few years already! They weren't offering a solution to prevent Peak Oil, but rather a rational response to adapt to Peak Oil - a way to transition from how we live now to how we'll have to live in the future.

I have to say, these guys were a lifeline, a beacon of light if you will, in a darkness that the knowledge of peak Oil can bring on someone. And amazingly, this wasn't some nut-job fringe movement - there were "Transition Communities" in several countries, the majority of which being in the UK. Morover, I also discovered a US based network that operated on a similar premise; the need to transition smoothly away from fossil fuels. That group is called the Relocalization Network, and actually had a branch in London, Ontario. Between the two organizations, over 250 communities (and growing) had begun a process towards a more resilient, relocalized, and low energy future. These guys were shedding light not only on the problem, but on the ways we can adapt to the changes that are coming.

That's when I decided I wanted to engage our community in this process, and so began reaching out to people who I thought may want to be made aware and get involved. By August, a small group of us had officially become PHCRI (Poplar Hill/Coldstream Resilience Initiative), and our own journey had begun.