Heat Your Home With Natural Gas?

If so, you may want to give some sober thought to article below. If we become a natural gas importer in twenty years, you will need to keep in mind who we will be getting that gas from - Russia. Now consider they they, the Russians, get to set the price and that they, the Russians, have a habit of shutting off the flow of gas when they need to strongarm a country to seeing their way (just ask the Ukrainians). Now, how old will you be in twenty years? I don't know about you guys, but I'll be 65, and likely retired. Maybe this is a good time to consider what your income might be like then. Will you be able to afford those higher prices, just for the luxury of heating your home ?

Rick Munroe, Ottawa Citizen

CANADAS NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION IS ENTERING SERIOUS DECLINE, BUT MOST CANADIANS REMAIN UNAWARE

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In October 2007 the National Energy Board quietly issued a report entitled “Short-term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability.” Its contents are shocking, yet there has been no public response. The first step in our natural gas supply is finding it. On p. 8, the report states, “there is a well-established trend of decreasing finding rate year on year.”

Second, the wells don’t last: “over the first year and a half of production, the annual decline rate of the average well is 55%” (p. vii).

Third, western conventional gas production is plummeting: the NEB chart on p. 16 shows that total WCSB conventional gas is projected to decline 16% from 2006-2009. One month later, the NEB issued its “Canada’s Energy Future to 2030.” This report states that “increasing demand and gradually declining production reduces the net exports to zero by 2028 [after which] Canada becomes a net gas importer, reliant on LNG [liquified natural gas] imports” (p.xx).

As if losing 16% of our western production in just three years were not bad enough, the November report goes on to predict that “Canadian natural gas production is expected to decline by almost 40% by the end of 2030” (p.48).

Keep in mind that the US takes over half of Canadian NG production and the planned tar sands expansion (also geared to serve the US market) will increase NG demand considerably. What does the NEB say about this impending supply crunch? It states that by 2030 Canada will need to import about three billion cubic ft per day of liquid natural gas (LNG) via five import terminals (p.46).

Bottom line: our natural gas, which could and should have kept Canadians warm for centuries, is rapidly disappearing. Beginning in St. John and Kitimat, Canadians will gradually see our NG pipelines reversed and our formerly secure supply of domestic gas replaced by overseas LNG. Relying on a volatile global LNG market to warm our homes in February is hardly prudent, but there is no public awareness, no media interest and no political discussion.

So Canadians will have no choice.

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Maybe this is a good time, as a citizen in a participatory democracy (and with no doubt some self interest in keeping warm during the winter), to get involved and ask the media and our elected officials to begin talking about the time when Canadians will need to rely on our good friends (the Russians) for home heating!

Or, folks could just carry on as sheeple and let whatever happen, happen. Personally, I choose the former.

Awakening

One morning, early last summer, I was eating breakfast and getting my daily news-fix on the internet. I was reading an article on global warming and saw a reference to something called Peak Oil. I didn't really know anything about it, but my interest was piqued (pardon the pun), as it was mentioned as something that was related to the global warming problem. As I followed the link and began reading what Peak Oil was all about (and what it meant to me and my family), I felt the blood drain from my face. I was mortified. Ever have one of those "Holy shit, this can't be real" moments? Well, I had one of those right then and there. I can't really describe the funk I was in after reading that stuff. I was deperate to find a valid scientific or technical response from someone - anyone - that said "No, Peak Oil is just a theory, and we'll all be fine." Sadly, none was forthcoming. This was an unpleasant way to be starting my weekend.

Over the next month, as I learned more about Peak Oil, and was able to both emotionally and rationally digest what I was learning, I went through two distict phases; denial and anger. I understand now that these are actually two of the phases in the grieving process, though I didn't actually see it that way at the time (more about that another time). Shortly thereafter, I found myself at a web page for an oranization based in the UK called Transition Towns. These guys had been working a response to Peak Oil for a few years already! They weren't offering a solution to prevent Peak Oil, but rather a rational response to adapt to Peak Oil - a way to transition from how we live now to how we'll have to live in the future.

I have to say, these guys were a lifeline, a beacon of light if you will, in a darkness that the knowledge of peak Oil can bring on someone. And amazingly, this wasn't some nut-job fringe movement - there were "Transition Communities" in several countries, the majority of which being in the UK. Morover, I also discovered a US based network that operated on a similar premise; the need to transition smoothly away from fossil fuels. That group is called the Relocalization Network, and actually had a branch in London, Ontario. Between the two organizations, over 250 communities (and growing) had begun a process towards a more resilient, relocalized, and low energy future. These guys were shedding light not only on the problem, but on the ways we can adapt to the changes that are coming.

That's when I decided I wanted to engage our community in this process, and so began reaching out to people who I thought may want to be made aware and get involved. By August, a small group of us had officially become PHCRI (Poplar Hill/Coldstream Resilience Initiative), and our own journey had begun.

What's in a Name?

Peak Oil, that point in time where global oil production tops out, then falls off is not far away. Once we are past the peak, our economies, so dangerously dependent on fossil fuels, will relentlessly contract and the hardship that will ensue will make the Great Depression look like a Sunday party. It's moved me to action in a way that I could not have imagined. Starting a blog is one of those surprising little things. One of the toughest things in starting it was picking it's name. That said, I guess I should back-track and explain specifically why I started a blog, that being my desire to share my thoughts, opinions, hopes and fears in an age where, in our lifetimes, we will leave The Age of Oil, and go down a dark road full of uncertainty.

It will be a road full of pits and falls, twists and turns, and possibly dead ends. It will be a road full of forks, where we will have to make choices - choices individually and collectively. Do we go this way, or that way? And at each of these forks, we'll have an opportunity to look down each road, only a little perhaps, for each is darkened by uncertainty, ignorance, fear and trepidation. We need some light shed, banishing the dark, that which led us all here in the first place, so that we may see farther, and know which may be the better path to take.

Thankfully, we have a lantern, that being the collective wisdom and experience of those going down this journey with us. The Relocalization Network, Transition Towns, the Post Carbon Institute, and all those in the blogosphere slogging along with us, each of us trying to shine light down these roads so we can make our way, the best we can, in a young and uncertain century destined to be full of dramatic social and economic change.

For myself, and the community group I founded last summer, I want to see this beautiful village, and it's families, spared from the worst, through knowledge, preparedness, and resilience. And this leads, in a rather round about and rambling way, to the blog name - The Road and the Lantern. It seems apropos.

I hope that what is to follow here may shed some light and reflection for those who will be sharing this journey as well, down the dark road we are being forced to travel by Peak Oil.